Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season is already here, and ahead of the first game of the week — a bout between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams on Thursday — there are seven teams in the league in total who have 1-3 records.
These 1-3 squads are in fascinating spots at this point in the season, as they have varying odds to make the playoffs despite holding identical records. Let’s try to forecast the chances of those seven teams rebounding from their slow starts to make the playoffs. The teams will be put into tiers based on the likelihood that they qualify.
Tier 3: It’s (probably) over
New York’s offense is among the more ineffective in the NFL this season, as only five of the league’s 32 teams are averaging fewer points per contest than the Giants at 18.3. The team might struggle even more on that side of the ball moving forward now that wide receiver Malik Nabers is out for the season with a torn ACL. That won’t make life easier for rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who recently took over for veteran Russell Wilson. The rest of the season may be more about development for New York.
The Panthers are well on their way to missing the playoffs for an eighth year in a row. Starting signal-caller Bryce Young has been inaccurate with his passes (he has a completion rate of just 60.4 percent) and has made some mistakes this season, and Carolina’s defense is on the heels of one of the worst performances from any defensive unit all season. Carolina gave up 42 points in a blowout loss to the New England Patriots in Week 4.
Las Vegas got off to an auspicious start to the campaign with a win over the Patriots in its season opener, but it has been all downhill for the Raiders since then. Some careless play from quarterback Geno Smith is partly to blame for the team’s three-game losing streak, as he’s the league leader in interceptions with seven already.
The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture for Cleveland’s offense. The Browns rank in the bottom half of the league (or worse) in receiving yards, rushing yards and points. Cleveland hasn’t mustered more than 17 points in any one game in the 2025 season. As the squad navigates a quarterback switch, there isn’t much room for optimism at the moment.
Tier 2: There may be a path
The Dolphins needed to go up against a winless New York Jets team in order to pick up their first win of the season, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill will be on the shelf for the remainder of the season after suffering a gruesome injury. It might be surprising to see the Dolphins in this category, but they have a lot of winnable games left on their schedule. Not only that, but Miami has experience bouncing back from bad starts to get back in the playoff conversation. Just look at 2020, 2021 and 2024.
Tier 1: There’s a real shot
There’s an argument that the Ravens shouldn’t even have a 1-3 record at this juncture. After all, Baltimore suffered an epic late-game collapse to open its season against the Buffalo Bills. It then got outplayed in the fourth quarter of a Sept. 22 matchup against the Detroit Lions after the game was tied heading into the final frame.
So long as quarterback Lamar Jackson is on the field and running the offense, the Ravens can’t be ruled out in the playoff race. Jackson, 28, is a two-time MVP before he’s even reached his 30th birthday, and he’s pacing the NFL in passing touchdowns this season with 10. Baltimore is talented enough to save its season but has lots to fix and will need to survive some injury woes, with Jackson’s status even in doubt at the moment.
Houston dropped every one of its opening three games of this season, but its showing against the Tennessee Titans might have marked a turning point in the team’s season. The Texans won by a final score of 26-0, and quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like the star player fans of the team have come to know and love. After he threw more interceptions than touchdowns in Houston’s first trio of contests, he threw two touchdowns compared to zero interceptions against Tennessee.
Fittingly, the Ravens and Texans are going to face off in Week 5, with the winning team moving to 2-3 and the losing team dropping to 1-4. Needless to say, there is going to be a lot on the line.
